![]() In the average midterm election during this time period, the president’s party has lost 26 House seats. Since the end of World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats in all but two midterms: 20, when Republicans were seen as overreaching with their impeachment inquiry into President Bill Clinton. Therefore, since Democrats won the House popular vote by 3.0 points in 2020, Republicans can roughly expect to win it by 4.4 points in 2022 if history is any guide.īecause of the way the House map is drawn, the House popular vote doesn’t translate perfectly to the number of seats the president’s party loses, but as a general rule, the drop in support for the president’s party does cost it seats in Congress - at least in the House. Overall, in the post-World War II era, the president’s party has performed an average of 7.4 points worse in the House popular vote in midterm elections than it did two years prior. At this point, though, history isn’t on the Democrats’ side. And some theories for why the “midterm curse” exists may contain some hints that Democrats may be able to hold their losses to a minimum. But as with any rule, there are exceptions. House and gain seats there - although their prospects in the Senate are less certain. History certainly seems adamant that they will win the national popular vote for the U.S. ![]() Are Republicans really a lock to sweep the 2022 midterms? It’s worth digging into the data behind this rule, though, and the reasons why it so often holds true. ![]() And the results out of Virginia and New Jersey last November suggest that a red wave might hit President Biden’s Democrats in 2022. President Donald Trump’s Republicans were buried under a blue wave in 2018. President Barack Obama’s Democrats received a “ shellacking” in 2010. Bush’s Republicans took a “ thumping” in 2006. One of the most ironclad rules in American politics is that the president’s party loses ground in midterm elections.
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